A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
